Bailey Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 ....apparently the most accurate predictor of who will win the presidential election according to a recent University of Michigan study, is not who do you want to win, not who do you prefer? BUT............Who do you think will win? ....That question alone has correctly predicted the election 81% of the time going back to the 1930's I think Ohio may go to a recount, I think we may not know who will be president for days maybe weeks. I asked someone who they thought would win, and they told me Romney, and I said well why? She told me because too many people don't want to go to the polls if they are going to be harassed, Ohio is HUGE...and they have poll challengers, about 1 million will be out to stand at the polls and see who is voting and ask questions.....kinda fucked up when you think about it as a constitutional right. I think Obama will win, but barely, Romney may even get the popular vote, but he will lose the electoral college. Obama 271 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reyna ♔ Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Obama will win with the Electoral College perhaps barely but still win. Romney will probably get the popular vote especially with the huge turn out in the south. Which is a total shame, but doesn't surprise me at all. My parents told me the lines went out the building where they were and that's only in a small town. Thank goodness for the Electoral College, at least in this election. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rock & Roll Hall of Game Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 what did that study determine this year? http://economix.blog...not-intentions/ Q. Based on your research and the current polls, what does the expectations question suggest is the most likely outcome on Tuesday? A. If a majority expects Obama to win, then right there, it says that I’m forecasting an Obama victory. But by how much? Here’s where it gets tricky. The fact that 60 percent of people think that Obama is going to win doesn’t mean that he’s going to win 60 percent of the votes. And it doesn’t mean that he’s a 60 percent chance to win. Rather, it simply says that given the information they have, 60 percent of people believe that Obama is going to win. Can we use this to say anything about his likely winning margin? Yes. I’ll spare you the details of the calculation, but it says that if 60.3 percent of people expect Obama to beat Romney, then we can forecast that he’ll win about 52.5 percent of the two-party vote. That would be a solid win, though not as impressive as his seven-point win in 2008. The proportion who expect Obama to win right now looks awfully similar to the proportion who expected George W. Bush to win in a Gallup Poll at a similar point in 2004. Ultimately Bush won 51.2 percent of the two-party vote. Right now, Nate Silver is predicting that Obama will win 50.5 percent of the popular vote, and Romney 48.6 percent. As a share of the two-party vote, this says he’s forecasting Obama to win 51 percent of the vote. Now Silver’s approach aggregates responses from hundreds of thousands of survey respondents, while I have far fewer, so his estimate still deserves a lot of respect. I don’t want to overstate the confidence with which I’m stating my forecast. So let me put it this way: My approach says that it’s likely that Obama will outperform the forecasts of poll-based analysts like Silver. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bailey Posted November 5, 2012 Author Share Posted November 5, 2012 what did that study determine this year? http://economix.blog...not-intentions/ they didn't state in the story......isn't that the big question?......UPDATE: I read that at the end he says Obama basically and maybe by more than people expect Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bailey Posted November 5, 2012 Author Share Posted November 5, 2012 people have some strong opinions all over the place....I will be glad when this is done, more glad if Obama wins Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rock & Roll Hall of Game Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Two more days... i probably won't be able to sleep Monday night Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bailey Posted November 5, 2012 Author Share Posted November 5, 2012 Two more days... i probably won't be able to sleep Monday night of course not you live in Ohio they will be knocking on your door ..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rock & Roll Hall of Game Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 They were at 11:00 this morning Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bailey Posted November 5, 2012 Author Share Posted November 5, 2012 They were at 11:00 this morning why not fuck with them the way you do here? It would be fun, just tell them you intend to vote for Romney because he is going to free the slaves....they ask you why you believe that....just tell em that's what the last door to door campaigner told you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rock & Roll Hall of Game Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 why not fuck with them the way you do here? It would be fun, just tell them you intend to vote for Romney because he is going to free the slaves....they ask you why you believe that....just tell em that's what the last door to door campaigner told you. I'm 24 years old... I wasn't awake or sober enough to answer the door that's funny Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bu. Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Obama...by a hair 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bu. Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 I'm actually scared this year. I didn't expect Bush to win in '04 but then he did Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bailey Posted November 5, 2012 Author Share Posted November 5, 2012 I'm actually scared this year. I didn't expect Bush to win in '04 but then he did Oh no, I kinda knew, I saw Bush 2004 campaign car stickers all over the fucking place, I'm like ya'll do realize this is Michigan right? Our state hasn't gone for a Republican since 1988. The problem with both 2000 and 2004 is that both Democratic opponents to Bush did not have any balls, they were not presidential material, Al Gore was a punk pretty much and since that lose, his political career has been shit, so has John Kerry's, I do believe Kerry is still a senator, but he has no relevance at the national level. Now Romney despite losing before has stood his ground in politics. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bailey Posted November 5, 2012 Author Share Posted November 5, 2012 I'm actually scared this year. I didn't expect Bush to win in '04 but then he did I'm scared too, this is the most nervous I have ever been in an election year, there are a lot of ballot proposals on our state ticket too, and those proposals are very important its hard to keep up with everything they too busy throwing a lot of shit the voters way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bailey Posted November 5, 2012 Author Share Posted November 5, 2012 the lines for early voting Absentee ballot are long as fuck in Florida......BUT...people are getting out to exercise their constitutional right Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rock & Roll Hall of Game Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 LOL i like how voting has become a 3-month event... "Too busy on a Tuesday? vote whenever" 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aed05 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 Looking at the electoral college Obama should have it. The media isn't reporting it that way but the #s are in his favor. Even if Romney wins Ohio he still need two or three more swings states to clinch victory. If he doesn't win Ohio its a rap for him period. They broke it all down on CBS this morning. Obama has a lead in ohio right now, but the republican govenor of that state has been all over the media this weekend and this morning damn near promising that ohio was romney's. That has me thinking he's gonna try and pull a fast one on behalf of his Party. This election is giving me election 2000 teas. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bu. Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 What happened in 2000? I can't remember Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bailey Posted November 5, 2012 Author Share Posted November 5, 2012 What happened in 2000? I can't remember OH dude......really? Gore vs Bush........all the way to the Supreme Court........dimpled chads? any of this shit ring a bell? Muthafuckas mad as hell in Florida? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aed05 Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 What happened in 2000? I can't remember Jed Bush, then govenor of Florida pulled a stunt down there and helped his brother George win that state and the election. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bu. Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 OH dude......really? Gore vs Bush........all the way to the Supreme Court........dimpled chads? any of this shit ring a bell? Muthafuckas mad as hell in Florida? I really can't remember...I was only 11 and only the UK mattered. It wasn't until 9/11 when any of us gave a fuck about America. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bailey Posted November 5, 2012 Author Share Posted November 5, 2012 Jed Bush, then govenor of Florida pulled a stunt down there and helped his brother George win that state and the election. I would like to think Obama's team has pulled out all the stops, we learn from the past, and we saw what happen in Florida, no one wants that again on either side. I am sure Obama has a team in Ohio working around the clock....it will come down to the voters there, it will not be about any bullshit....Obama, Romney, Ohio, and the whole world knows the golden ticket is in Ohio, trust they are going through every nook and cranny to make sure shit is on point.....Ohio is the only state that really matters Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bailey Posted November 5, 2012 Author Share Posted November 5, 2012 I really can't remember...I was only 11 and only the UK mattered. It wasn't until 9/11 when any of us gave a fuck about America. you missed Rhythm Nation, Control, and The Velvet Rope....sigh.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bu. Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 you missed Rhythm Nation, Control, and The Velvet Rope....sigh.... I didn't miss no The Velvet Rope . I did miss Controlsus and Janhova Nation (kind of...I was born the year after...I'm sure I grooved to Miss You Much in the womb) though . 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paul Posted November 5, 2012 Share Posted November 5, 2012 OH dude......really? Gore vs Bush........all the way to the Supreme Court........dimpled chads? any of this shit ring a bell? Muthafuckas mad as hell in Florida? It's a fair enough question on 2 counts. 1st bu was probably about 10 in 2000. Second we don't live in America so American politics isn't the top of everyone's interest list. Luckily, unlike in America, we do have local, national and global news which isn't reduced to a 10 second "in other news segment". That's not to say that US politics isn't of global importance because if you get another George bush in and our stupid country teams up with you to go to illegal wars again (which we still haven't won) it affects us all. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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